StateFeud
CaliforniaCalifornia gas price35%New YorkNew York gas price46%AmericaUS average gas price62%AmericaUS median existing-home price50%AmericaUS median new-home price50%AmericaUS new home sales47%NevadaNevada house price index82%New York CityNYC billionaires lost55%West VirginiaWest Virginia population25%OregonOregon semiconductor jobs16%KentuckyKentucky distillery jobs8%AmericaUS recession22%AmericaICE removals40%AmericaHottest year on record68%AmericaUS climate goals18%AmericaEV market share47%AmericaHHS vaccine policy18%AmericaMedicaid funding restored53%AmericaCongressional pay raise49%

Blue vs Red

“The climate crisis is overblown.”- half the country

Every argument in America has a market that settles it. Put your money where your mouth is.

The EconomyHousingImmigrationClimate & EnergyHealthThe Government

The feed · biggest money first

The EconomyShare the take
“This economy is headed for a crash.”
Believe itA recession hits22%NonsenseNo recession78%
Settles on: Will there be a recession in 2027? Believers take YES, skeptics take NO · 687,388 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
Climate & EnergyShare the take
“The climate crisis is overblown.”
Believe itNo record heat in 202632%NonsenseHottest year on record68%
Settles on: Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Believers take NO, skeptics take YES · 28,973 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
ImmigrationShare the take
“The mass deportations are actually happening.”
Believe itRemovals hit the big numbers40%NonsenseThey fall short60%
Settles on: Will ICE deport more than 450,000 people in FY2026? Believers take YES, skeptics take NO · 28,323 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
Climate & EnergyShare the take
“EVs are a fad that's already dying.”
Believe itEV sales stall out53%NonsenseEVs keep growing47%
Settles on: Will EVs be above 30% of US car sales by 2030? Believers take NO, skeptics take YES · 15,009 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
Climate & EnergyShare the take
“America's climate goals are pure fantasy.”
Believe itThe goals get missed82%NonsenseThe goals get met18%
Settles on: Will the US meet its climate goals? Believers take NO, skeptics take YES · 12,283 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
The EconomyShare the take
“The rich are fleeing New York.”
Believe itNYC loses billionaires55%NonsenseThey stay put45%
Settles on: Will New York City lose at least 1 billionaire this year? Believers take YES, skeptics take NO · 3,988 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
HousingShare the take
“Nobody wants to live in red-state America.”
Believe itWest Virginia shrinks75%NonsenseWest Virginia grows25%
Settles on: Will West Virginia's population top 1,766,147? Believers take NO, skeptics take YES · 1,853 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)West Virginia stands in for the argument. It's one state, and it's the market that exists.
HealthShare the take
“RFK is going to gut the vaccine schedule.”
Believe itThe schedule gets cut18%NonsenseThe schedule survives82%
Settles on: Will the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the Centers for Disease Control and … Believers take YES, skeptics take NO · 471 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
HealthShare the take
“Those blue-state Medicaid cuts are here to stay.”
Believe itFunding stays cut47%NonsenseFunding gets restored53%
Settles on: Will the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services… Believers take NO, skeptics take YES · 338 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
HousingShare the take
“The housing market is about to crash.”
Believe itNew-home prices fall50%NonsensePrices hold up50%
Settles on: Will the typical new-build cost more than $395K? Believers take NO, skeptics take YES · 178 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)Settles on the new-build median, which is noisy month to month.
The EconomyShare the take
“Gas prices in blue states are out of control.”
Believe itCalifornia gas stays high35%NonsenseCalifornia gas falls65%
Settles on: Will California gas hold above $6.26? Believers take YES, skeptics take NO · 151 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)California is the proxy. It's the blue-state gas market that trades.
The Governmentthin marketShare the take
“Congress will quietly give itself a raise.”
Believe itThey get the raise49%NonsenseNo raise51%
Settles on: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the annual base salary of all Members of Congress in… Believers take YES, skeptics take NO · 18 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
Housingthin marketShare the take
“Housing will never be affordable again.”
Believe itHome prices keep climbing50%NonsensePrices cool off50%
Settles on: Will the typical US home cost more than $415K? Believers take YES, skeptics take NO · 5 contracts · Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)