Will the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announce a definitive decision to lift, in whole or in part, either federal Medicaid payment deferral announced for California or Minnesota on July 21, 2026, or otherwise make any amount covered by either deferral available to the applicable state before Jan 1, 2027?
Traders say 53% yes
Vibes don't settle contracts. Data does.
The full board
| Line | Yes odds | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 53% | 338 |
Odds are midpoints of live bid/ask on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated). Closes Jan 1, 2027.